Vietnam GDP growth likely to hit 8% this year in base-case scenario

The Vietnamese economy is anticipated to expand 8% this year in the base-case scenario, providing that there are no adverse external factors facing the national economy in the remaining months of the year, according to the Ministry of Planning and Investment (MPI).

vietnam gdp growth likely to hit 8 this year in base-case scenario picture 1

This is one of the two scenarios the MPI has envisaged for the economy this year taking into account ongoing global uncertainty and complexity.

In the worse-case scenario, GDP growth is likely to reach roughly 7.5%, particularly with many challenges and uncertainties expected in the fourth quarter of the year.

The economy grew 5.03% in the first quarter, 7.7% in the second quarter and 13.67% in the third quarter of the year.

With regard to Vietnamese economic prospects ahead in 2023, the MPI has noted that there will be both challenges and opportunities amid inflationary pressure worldwide and a gloomy outlook for global economic growth. In this case, it said that drastic measures should be taken to maintain stable economic growth moving forward.

MPI Deputy Minister Tran Quoc Phuong pointed out that high inflation in major economies is anticipated to ultimately cause economic recession in the long-term, and that global inflation will certainly impact the local economy as the country’s openness to trade is relatively large.

The MPI also warned about other factors such as natural disasters and epidemics, and it therefore recommended that the Government choose a growth scenario of roughly 6.5% for 2023.

Phuong revealed that 46.7% of public investment capital has been disbursed so far in comparison to the plan assigned by the Prime Minister, with nearly VND35,000 billion higher compared to the previous year.

This can largely be attributed to the fact that the total amount of public investment capital this year is higher than last year, leading to a higher rate of capital disbursement, he said.

VOV

Other News

Private economic sector poised for breakthrough growth

Private economic sector poised for breakthrough growth

More than a year after the Politburo's Resolution No. 68-NQ/TW on private sector development came into effect, expectations now extend beyond increasing the number of enterprises. The goal is to build a stronger business community with greater resilience, larger ambitions and the capacity to compete in global supply chains.

Vietnam remains ASEAN growth leader in 2026 despite global headwinds: WB

Vietnam remains ASEAN growth leader in 2026 despite global headwinds: WB

Vietnam is expected to remain one of ASEAN’s fastest-growing economies in 2026, supported by resilient exports, strong investment inflows and an ambitious reform agenda, despite mounting global uncertainties, according to the World Bank’s latest Vietnam Economic Update released on May 15.

Ministry establishes monitoring framework for carbon market

Ministry establishes monitoring framework for carbon market

Under a new circular, the exchange of greenhouse gas emission quotas and carbon credits is conducted on the domestic carbon credit exchange through the carbon trading system, which is interconnected with the national registration system.

Biofuel ready for nationwide rollout

Biofuel ready for nationwide rollout

For biofuels, particularly E10, to develop successfully, stronger and more coordinated policies are needed, especially pricing mechanisms capable of creating a sufficiently attractive gap between E10 and mineral-based petrol, an expert has said.

Vietnamese farm produce promoted at African investment, trade forum

Vietnamese farm produce promoted at African investment, trade forum

The 12th Africa Forum for Investment & Commerce (AFIC 12) opened in Algiers, the capital of Algeria, on May 9, drawing around 2,000 participants, including officials, economists, businesses, financial and development organizagtions from 43 African countries and international partners, including Vietnam.

Int'l medical, pharmaceutical expo opens in Hanoi

Int'l medical, pharmaceutical expo opens in Hanoi

The exhibition, which runs until May 9 at the Hanoi International Centre for Exhibition, showcases advanced products and technologies across a range of fields, including pharmaceuticals, drug manufacturing machinery and equipment, medical devices, hospital and clinic services and dental equipment.

Mega projects to transform Ho Chi Minh City urban landscape

Mega projects to transform Ho Chi Minh City urban landscape

Leading the charge in this massive building spree is the new central city square in the core of the Thu Thiem new urban area. Spanning more than 20 ha, it’s the crown jewel of the Central Square and new administrative center complex.

Vietnam establishes itself as one of region’s most dynamic manufacturing and supply bases

Vietnam establishes itself as one of region’s most dynamic manufacturing and supply bases

The country’s stable political and economic environment provides a critical foundation for long-term sourcing strategies. At the same time, Vietnam has demonstrated a strong ability to scale up manufacturing, supported by a continuously expanding industrial base capable of meeting both high-volume demand and increasingly complex technical and quality requirements.

Vietnamese pomelos gain broader access to Australian market

Vietnamese pomelos gain broader access to Australian market

The update by Australia’s Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry to its Biosecurity Import Conditions system (BICON) on April 10, officially setting out import conditions for Vietnamese pomelos, is regarded as a major milestone in market access efforts.

Vietnam's industry spearheads transition to circular economy

Vietnam's industry spearheads transition to circular economy

The circular economy is no longer just a policy choice. It has become an inevitable trend for delivering sustainable and green growth, sharpening competitiveness at home and abroad, and meeting Vietnam’s net-zero emissions target by 2050. It is now a prerequisite to sustain long-term economic expansion, particularly in industrial production and supporting industries.

Nearly 100 tonnes of Vietnamese fruits, vegetables airlifted to UAE

Nearly 100 tonnes of Vietnamese fruits, vegetables airlifted to UAE

Vietnamese fresh produce and processed foods are increasingly recognised for their quality, with items such as cashew nuts, coffee and spices gaining popularity among Middle East consumers. In 2025, Vietnam’s farm produce exports to the UAE exceeded 445 million USD, up nearly 24% year-on-year.