Ho Chi Minh City (VNA) – Standard Chartered has sharply raised its forecast for Vietnam’s economic growth in 2026 to 9.5%, up from its previous projection of 7.2%, citing stronger-than-expected recovery in manufacturing, investment and domestic consumption.
The revision marks one of the bank’s most significant forecast upgrades for Vietnam in recent years.
In its latest economic outlook report, Standard Chartered said the adjustment follows Vietnam’s positive economic performance in the first half of the year, with growth drivers continuing to gain momentum. It also expects the positive trend to carry into 2027, predicting GDP growth of 11%.
Alongside the stronger growth projection, the bank lowered its inflation forecast to 4.4% for 2026 and 3.3% for 2027, saying that price pressures may ease further. Against this backdrop, it believes the State Bank of Vietnam is likely to keep its policy rates unchanged, balancing support for economic growth with the need to maintain macroeconomic stability.
Tim Leelahaphan, Senior Economist for Vietnam and Thailand at Standard Chartered, said Vietnam has demonstrated remarkable resilience and adaptability during the first half of 2026, with growth exceeding expectations thanks to the robust recovery of the manufacturing – processing industry, services and investment, as well as the positive impact of pro-growth policy measures.
While global economic uncertainties and inflationary risks remain factors to watch, he noted that Vietnam is entering the second half of the year with a relatively solid foundation. Sustained domestic demand, continued investment in infrastructure and enhanced production capacity, together with ongoing economic restructuring, are expected to foster a more balanced and sustainable growth model and support the economy’s long-term development objectives.
With its revised growth projection of 9.5% for 2026, Standard Chartered is now among the most optimistic international institutions regarding Vietnam’s economic prospects.
The more upbeat outlook is also being echoed by other international financial institutions. Last week, Singapore-based United Overseas Bank (UOB) raised its forecast for Vietnam’s GDP growth this year to 8.5% from 7%.
The series of upward revisions by leading international financial institutions underscores growing confidence in the resilience and prospects of the Vietnamese economy. Although their forecasts differ, they share the view that recovering domestic demand, sustained investment inflows, pro-growth policies and accelerated infrastructure development will remain the principal drivers supporting the country’s economic expansion in the coming years. Nevertheless, external uncertainties will continue to require close monitoring to ensure sustainable growth./.
