Hanoi (VNA) – Rising consumer demand during the year-end festive season, inventory restocking and positive signals from several markets are creating opportunities for Vietnam’s seafood exports to accelerate in the final months of 2026.
These factors are expected to help the sector achieve or exceed its annual export target of 12 billion USD, despite continued pressure from tariffs, traceability requirements and compliance costs.
Tran Gia Long, Deputy Director of the Department of Planning and Finance under the Ministry of Agriculture and Environment, said seafood exports need to generate around 1 billion USD per month in the remaining months of the year to help the agricultural, forestry and fishery sector meet its overall export target of 74 billion USD in 2026. Shrimp is expected to remain the main driver of seafood exports.
According to the Vietnam Association of Seafood Exporters and Producers (VASEP), shrimp exports reached 3.29 billion USD in the first eight months of 2026, up 12.3% year on year and accounting for about 41% of total seafood export revenue. China was the main growth driver, with imports from Vietnam rising 37.6% to 1.13 billion USD.
This offers significant room for businesses to expand shipments during the year-end peak season, when demand in Asian markets typically rises ahead of festivals and the Lunar New Year. Importers’ efforts to replenish inventories after a period of cautious ordering could also boost exports.
However, the US market remains challenging for Vietnamese shrimp. Shipments to the market have declined considerably, while a 12.5% Section 301 tariff, compared with 10% for some competitors, puts Vietnamese exporters at a price disadvantage. The final results of an anti-dumping duty review, expected to be announced in late September, are also set to directly affect orders in the fourth quarter.
Le Hang, VASEP Deputy Secretary-General, said the anti-dumping duty and Section 301 tariff would influence US orders, quoted prices and exporters’ decisions to shift to other markets. If tariffs remain high, more shipments could be redirected to Asia, adding pressure on selling prices.
Despite these challenges, opportunities remain in the US for deeply processed, high-value-added products. Le Van Quang, General Director of Minh Phu Seafood Corporation, said the US had overtaken Japan to become the company’s largest market. Although Vietnamese shrimp faces an additional 12.5% tariff, the price gap with shrimp from India and Ecuador is not yet large enough to undermine the competitiveness of value-added products.
To meet rising demand, Minh Phu is accelerating automation, aiming to automate 70-80% of its production operations. Quang said that even with all of its three factories running at full capacity, the company could not meet all demand and might consider building another plant if the market continued to grow.
Labour shortages are also speeding up modernisation. According to the company, a robot can perform work equivalent to that of about three workers and operate across three shifts. Older factories will have their equipment replaced gradually, while Minh Phu Khanh An Seafood Processing Plant in Ca Mau, designed to process 35,000 tonnes of products annually, is equipped with a higher level of automation and robotics.
Vietnam also has an advantage in certified shrimp production. Barbara Janker, Aquaculture Stewardship Council (ASC)’s commercial director for Europe and Asia-Pacific, said Vietnam ranked third globally in certified shrimp production by volume under the Aquaculture Stewardship Council (ASC), giving exporters an edge as demand for certified shrimp in Europe continues to rise.
Beyond shrimp, tra fish has room to expand in China, the EU and the Middle East as exports to the US decline. In Europe, shortages of wild-caught whitefish and high cod prices are creating opportunities for Vietnamese tra fish.
Other products face mixed prospects. Tuna, squid, octopus and wild-caught seafood remain dependent on compliance with origin-traceability requirements, while crab exports have shown more positive signs despite high compliance costs. Tilapia is also attracting attention, with its gradual introduction into sushi and sashimi dishes pointing to opportunities in higher-value segments.
VASEP said seafood exports could exceed 12 billion USD this year if demand from China remains strong and peak-season orders proceed without disruption. However, fourth-quarter performance is expected to vary across product groups, with shrimp facing US tariff pressure, pangasius relying more heavily on markets outside the US, and squid, octopus, crab and some molluscs offering potential bright spots./.
