Incoming! Lunar Study Reveals Big Increase in Major Asteroid Strikes on Earth

A new study has revealed that large asteroids have been striking Earth more than twice as often in the past 290 million years as they did in the 400 million years before that. The evidence wasn’t to be found here, though, but on the moon. Don’t worry, the chances of us getting hit are still one-in-a-million.

A study published Thursday in Science shed new light on the patterns of extraterrestrial impact the Earth has been subjected to in the last billion or so years of its existence. In an interesting twist, the answer wasn't found by looking for Earth craters at all, but moon craters.

The problem with studying really old craters on Earth is that, for the most part, they just aren't there. However, the moon takes just as many hits as we do, but doesn't have the disruptive weather and geological patterns the Earth does, so evidence of its pummelling by space rocks lasts much longer.

Photo: Wikipedia.
Photo: Wikipedia. 

"The only obstacle to doing this has been finding an accurate way to date large craters on the moon," William Bottke, study co-author and asteroid expert at the Southwest Research Institute, said in a Thursday statement.

Using data from NASA's Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter, they were able to determine the rate that craters break down and — surprise! — the problem isn't that the older craters are hard to find, it's that they were never there to begin with. There's just plain fewer of them.

The study compiled a list of asteroid strikes on both bodies that created craters wider than 12 miles across and assigned them dates. Researchers found 29 craters formed less than 290 million years ago and nine between 291 and 650 million years ago. By accounting for craters that would presently be underwater or erased by Earth forces, they concluded there should have been 260 big meteor hits in the last 290 million years, which is 2.6 times more often than in the prior period.

It's still, thankfully, a rate of slightly less than one big hit per million years. The most recent crater of this size is most likely that which formed Karakul, a lake at the bottom of a 32 mile-wide impact crater in the mountains of Tajikistan, variously dated between 2.6 million to 25 million years ago, according to a 1993 paper in Lunar and Planetary Science.

"This means that the Earth has fewer older craters on its most stable regions not because of erosion, but because the impact rate was lower prior to 290 million years ago," Bottke said. "The moon is like a time capsule, helping us understand the Earth. We found that the moon shared a similar bombardment history, which meant the answer to Earth's impact rate was staring everyone right in the face."

"It's just a game of probabilities," the study's lead author, Sara Mazrouei, told The Hill, noting that a series of large collisions in the Asteroid Belt, between Mars and Jupiter, could be to blame for the increase. "These events are still rare and far between that I'm not too worried about it."

Sputnik News

Other News

Vietnam targets at least 10 large strategic technology firms by 2030

Vietnam targets at least 10 large strategic technology firms by 2030

Deputy Prime Minister Ho Quoc Dung has signed a decision approving a plan to develop large domestic strategic technology enterprises in the 2026–2030 period, aimed at advancing digital infrastructure, digital human resources, digital data, strategic technologies and cybersecurity.

Protecting users crucial in building digital trust: Experts

Protecting users crucial in building digital trust: Experts

In Vietnam, digital transformation in the finance and banking sector is accelerating cashless payments, expanding access to financial services, improving market transparency and supporting economic growth and macroeconomic management.

Fostering skilled workforce for innovation era: experts

Fostering skilled workforce for innovation era: experts

Experts said close coordination among State management agencies, research institutes, universities, and businesses will improve training quality and serve the dual goals of quality education and practical research application.

Startup forum bridges Silicon Valley and local innovation ecosystem

Startup forum bridges Silicon Valley and local innovation ecosystem

The University of Economics Ho Chi Minh City (UEH), Saigon Asset Management (SAM), and Plug and Play Tech Centre co-hosted the “From Vietnam to Silicon Valley” forum, exploring AI innovation, venture capital, and pathways to integrate Vietnam’s startup ecosystem with Silicon Valley and global markets.

Experts call for stronger action against fake news online

Experts call for stronger action against fake news online

Experts have warned that fake news, misinformation and harmful online content are increasingly shaping public perceptions, particularly among young people, and stressed the need for stronger legal safeguards, technology tools and wider dissemination of credible information to tackle the problem effectively.

Protecting digital future in post-quantum, AI era

Protecting digital future in post-quantum, AI era

Participants highlighted the importance of building a proactive, synchronised and sustainable national cybersecurity ecosystem through closer cooperation among regulators, technology firms, research institutions and cybersecurity experts.

Vietnam attends SAHA 2026 defence, aerospace exhibition in Türkiye

Vietnam attends SAHA 2026 defence, aerospace exhibition in Türkiye

Vietnam’s participation in SAHA 2026 International Defence & Aerospace Exhibition in Istanbul reflects the country’s consistent policy of enhancing international defence integration and promoting defence industry cooperation towards self-reliance, self-strengthening, modernisation and dual-use development.

SK Group partners to build AI ecosystem in Vietnam

SK Group partners to build AI ecosystem in Vietnam

SK Innovation and SK Telecom signed MoUs with Nghe An province and the National Innovation Centre of Vietnam to advance AI ecosystem development and support the country’s long-term growth strategy.

Vietnam Research Excellence Fellowship for 2026-2030 approved

Vietnam Research Excellence Fellowship for 2026-2030 approved

Under the Vietnam Research Excellence Fellowship (VREF) for the 2026–2030 period, PhD students are identified as a core research force directly contributing to breakthroughs in sci-tech and innovation. Investing in top-tier doctoral candidates is more than workforce development, but a high-stakes strategic bet to forge a cohort of world-class scientists and technologists who can power Vietnam’s long-term economic ambitions.